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  • IHS CEH Report : Acrylonitrile (Chemical Economics Handbook 2019)

Download Report IHS CEH Report : Acrylonitrile (Chemical Economics Handbook 2019)

PDF by S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit
Information
Format: PDF Language: English Pages: 111 Publisher: S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit Publitshion date: 2019 ISBN: 110936
Description
Acrylonitrile (ACN) is a commodity petrochemical produced primarily from propylene and ammonia. It is used in the production of a wide range of chemical products (primarily ABS/SAN resins, acrylic fibers, acrylamide, nitrile rubber, adiponitrile, and carbon fibers). The ACN demand pattern is relatively complex because of the diversity of its end uses; however, ACN demand is broadly dependent on the state of the economy. Acrylic fibers, historically the foremost ACN outlet, have gradually lost momentum as a result of competition from low-cost polyester fibers. In the meantime, other applications such as ABS resin or acrylamide have gained significant traction, especially within the emerging world. ABS resins now constitute the largest ACN outlet. Acrylonitrile (ACN) is a commodity petrochemical produced primarily from propylene and ammonia. It is used in the production of a wide range of chemical products (primarily ABS/SAN resins, acrylic fibers, acrylamide, nitrile rubber, adiponitrile, and carbon fibers). Global acrylonitrile demand amounted to about 6 million metric tons in 2018 and has grown at an average annual rate of 1.9% over the past five years. The ACN demand pattern is relatively complex because of the diversity of its end uses. However, overall, ACN demand is broadly dependent on the state of the economy. Ultimately, demand growth for ACN derivatives lies where economic expansion is occurring; that is, primarily the emerging world with its growing population, overall improvement in living standards, development of infrastructure, and the growing wealth of a large middle class. The ACN demand structure has also evolved over the past decade as acrylic fibers, historically the foremost ACN outlet, have gradually lost momentum as a result of competition from low-cost polyester fibers. In the meantime, other applications like ABS resin or acrylamide have gained significant traction, especially within the emerging world. ABS resins has now outranked acrylic fibers and constitutes the largest ACN outlet, accounting for nearly 39% of demand. In 2018, global ACN capacity amounted to about 6.9 million metric tons. The primary producing region was Northeast Asia, with China accounting for about half of regional capacity. Since 2010, most large-scale ACN capacity additions have occurred in Asia; in China (CNPC, Anqing Petrochemical, CNOOC, Qilu Petrochemical, Jiangsu Sailboat Petrochemical, Shandong Wanda Chemical, Secco), South Korea (Tongsuh Petrochemical), and Thailand (PTT Asahi Chemical). In 2018, China alone accounted for 28% of global ACN capacity; the country has brought onstream 81% of the new capacity commissioned over the last eight years. The United States is the second-largest producing country, with a 23% share of global capacity. The region has recently benefited from favorable production economics resulting from lower propylene and ammonia cash costs (a result of greater propane and natural gas availability because of the indigenous shale gas production). Western Europe has rationalized its ACN capacity over the past 15 years and accounted for just about 13% of the world's capacity in 2018. All other regions have a more limited share; typically below 5%. Between 2010 and 2015, new ACN capacity was added ahead of demand, and the lack of producer discipline led to an oversupplied market and low margins. Nevertheless, since 2016, the situation has started to change and markets have tightened because of the absence of new projects and demand growing at an average rate of nearly 2% per year; ABS/SAN resins and acrylamide have constituted the major growth drivers. As demand is expected to further grow through 2023, markets are expected to tighten and operating rates will improve over the same time frame. North America is expected to remain the most cost-competitive region over the next five years based on continued advantaged propylene and ammonia production economics. The ACN production landscape is fairly concentrated, with the top five shareholders accounting for more than half of the capacity. INEOS Nitriles is the largest ACN producer, accounting for 20% of global capacity; the company fully owns the ACN propylene-based process license. Asahi Kasei is the second-largest producer, with 11% of the capacity; Asahi has developed a proprietary propane-based process that is now used in a plant in Thailand (PTT Asahi Chemical). PetroChina and SINOPEC each account for 10% of world capacity. Ascend Performance Materials has the fourth-largest ACN capacity. Most of Ascend's production is used captively for the production of adiponitrile (part of the nylon 6,6 chain).
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